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A quite important part of this knowledge of ours is the Value Bet System (VBS) that we offer to everyone of you! Be smart and get advantage against the Bookies by keeping track of this system. Pure statistics and maths analysis each teams strength and give you a Pick.
Have a look at what Pinnacle Sports writes about this system in this case to predict Final ScoresValue Bet Sytem
The average number of Premiership goals scored and conceded in the 2008/09 season was 47.1 [goals for & against (942)/total teams (20)]. If we divide the number of goals scored by each time by 47.1, we get a measure of 'Attack Strength', so since the Villans scored 54 goals over that season their Attack Strength is 54/47.1= 1.15 showing they scored 15% more goals than average. Dividing the number of goals conceded by 47.1 gives a measure of 'Defence Weakness', so since Wigan conceded 45 their Defence Weakness value is 45/47.1=0.955 shows they had conceded 4.5% less goals than average (1-0.955). For Wigan, their baseline is 1.08, the average number of goals scored by an away team. But by the time we adjust this for Villa's attack strength and Wigan's defence weakness, we get 1.06 x 1.15 x 0.96 = 1.17. But, just like no family has 2.4 children, nobody scores 1.17 goals - this is only an expected value, the average if the match were played again and again. But we can use the Poisson distribution to distribute 100% of probability across the possible number of goals, which gives the probability distributions shown in the table:
So, if the match had followed past performance (using only the 2008/09 season as a guide) this model suggests there was a 21.2% probability that Aston Villa won't score at all, and 32.7% (100 - 31.0 -36.3) probability Wigan will get at least 2 goals, even though playing away. To get the probability of an actual result we might assume the goals scored by each team are independent. Therefore the most likely result was a 1-1 draw which has a 12% probability - 0.329*0.363, and you can work out precition for other results in the same way. The actual result was 2-0 to Wigan, a probablity of 0.212*0.212=4.5%. |